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Exclusive: How Did She Come Up with Seven Million?
September 29, 2009 by Neil · 5 Comments
An excellent report recently came out about shadow housing inventory. Loyal readers of this site know that the best guess so far estimates 7 million units of shadow housing inventory. This was first reported on Bloomberg’s website on September 23 with the headline: “Housing Crash to Resume on 7 Million Foreclosures, Amherst Says.” The report, however, was not available online. Until now.
Here is the entire report:
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Check out what others are saying about this post...[...] by comparing matched-price pairs for thousands of single-family homes known in each market. If seven million housing units of shadow housing inventory have not been taken into account, the data not only fails to present the entire picture, it presents a rosy and distorted [...]
[...] UPDATE (10/4, by jm): The good folks at NY City based Multi-Family Investor report (see comment #1 below) that they’ve got the scoop on the Amherst report in their post "Exclusive: How Did She Come Up with Seven Million?" (9/29). [...]
[...] still flawed, Case Shiller numbers. Since Case Shiller does not factor in shadow housing inventory, seven million shadow units are necessarily omitted from his flawed arithmetic. With half of all residential homes dragging around negative equity by next year, his optimism [...]
[...] has not yet hit the market will necessarily be missing from the equation. How potentially flawed? Seven million units are yet to come online [...]
[...] FHA’s financial health has been a topic of growing concern as the agency’s loan volume exploded and its default rate climbed. The FHA is artificially boosting home sales on the sacrificial pyre of prudent accounting. Long term, these purchases will return more foreclosed houses into the mix, on top of the steady foreclosures, and seven million units of shadow housing inventory coming into the mix. [...]